Politics: In Gustav's Wake
by Clancy DuBos - Gambit Weekly (excerpt)

While most of us in New Orleans will be done, or nearly done, cleaning up after Hurricane Gustav by the end of this week, the storm left a political mess that could take Louisiana until early December to clean up. Damn hurricanes.

State election law allows the governor, upon recommendation of the secretary of state, to postpone elections during "declared states of emergency" in order to ensure maximum citizen participation and an orderly electoral process. That exigency certainly applied to last Saturday's scheduled congressional primaries in southeast Louisiana. Gov. Bobby Jindal thus issued an executive order rescheduling them.

It was the right call. In the immediate aftermath of Gustav, voter turnout in south Louisiana would have been so small that a relative handful of people could have chosen the Democratic nominees. (The GOP nominations are uncontested.)

Now, the Democratic primaries in the First and Second Congressional Districts will be held Oct. 4, the same date as the "open primaries" for numerous state and local offices. Barring another storm, turnout on Oct. 4 will be large — especially in New Orleans, where a hot race for district attorney tops the local ballot.

In the Second Congressional District, the six Democrats challenging embattled incumbent William Jefferson virtually guarantee a runoff, which has been rescheduled for Nov. 4 — presidential Election Day. The general election in Jefferson's congressional district, which should be a mere formality in the heavily Democratic district, has been pushed back to Dec. 6 — four days after Dollar Bill is scheduled to go on trial on federal racketeering and bribery charges in the Northern District of Virginia. The storm, and Jefferson's possible candidacy on Dec. 6, could push that event back several months as well.

Well before then, however, the revised election schedule will have a tremendous impact on the Second District contest.

For starters, I think the bigger turnout on Oct. 4 decreases Jefferson's chances of making a runoff, but his chances are still good. At the same time, I think the bigger turnout will hurt challenger Helena Moreno's chances.