Landrieu, The Lone GOP Target
by Reid Wilson (excerpt)

REAL CLEAR POLITICS

It is rare that a Senate candidate merits the attention of the First Lady of the United States. Then again, it is rare this year that a Republican Senate candidate is actually competitive against a Democratic incumbent.

So Laura Bush's stop in Lafayette, Louisiana yesterday, on behalf of State Treasurer John Kennedy, served to underscore just how critical the GOP sees the state as a factor in their efforts to blunt what is expected to be a banner year for Democrats. In fact, most Republicans who follow the Senate landscape admit that Kennedy, who faces two-term Senator Mary Landrieu, is the party's only hope of winning back a seat this year.

The race has all the hallmarks of a typical Louisiana election -- which is to say, shifting loyalties to candidates transcend weak party affiliations, an early barrage of insults and negative ads and, in general, yet another example of politics in a state with a political climate unlike any other.

Louisiana is certainly not a typical state. Approximately 30% of the electorate is African American, giving Democrats a good foundation from which to start statewide campaigns. But with a Democratic registration of nearly 54%, the divide between voters who habitually register Democratic and those who actually vote that way shows through; despite Democrats out-registering Republicans by a two-to-one margin, the GOP holds five of seven statewide offices, and Democratic Senator John Breaux's seat was an easy pickup for Republican David Vitter when Breaux retired in 2004.

Louisiana is a state in which a typical textbook gets thrown out the window. Whichever candidate can appeal to voters who have switched between parties themselves, run with their presidential candidates while simultaneously running away from their message, and turn out voters from their political bases looks most likely to win the seat in November.