Victory A Local Story, Not A National Trend
by Stephanie Grace - Times-Picayune (excerpt)

The clock on Don Cazayoux's 15 minutes of fame started ticking Saturday night.

News that the New Roads Democrat had won the Baton Rouge-area congressional seat held by Republican Richard Baker for more than two decades rocketed around the political press.

(T)hose who view Cazayoux's defeat of former state Rep. Woody Jenkins mainly through a national lens are missing the big picture. The decisive dynamics in Saturday's race were local, not national.

Cazayoux didn't really try to tap into the type of anti-Republican sentiment that's fueling Democratic gains elsewhere.

One area where national politics could influence the fall race is in determining who turns out. Support for McCain could swell a Republican's numbers, although African-American turnout for Obama, if he's the Democratic nominee, could neutralize any gain.

The biggest threat to Cazayoux could actually come from racial politics, but of a decidedly local nature.

Democratic primary loser Michael Jackson, a state representative from Baton Rouge, who is African-American, is reportedly peeved that his white colleague attracted all the national support, and is threatening to qualify in the fall as an independent. That would allow Jackson to skip the primaries and go straight to the general election, a move that could split the Democratic vote and send a Republican to Congress.