Poll: Cao Leads 2nd Congressional District Race
by Christopher Tidmore (excerpt)

BAYOU BUZZ

Nearly two years ago, in the wake of Anh “Joseph” Cao’s victory over scandal-plagued incumbent William Jefferson, the conventional political wisdom was that the Vietnamese Republican’s triumph in the very Democratic-leaning, African-American majority 2nd Congressional District was a fluke. It could not happen again in a normal election, the pundits mused, but a recent poll suggests they may have spoken too soon.

According to a new Verne Kennedy survey, in a head to head contest, Joseph Cao leads the likely Democratic frontrunner State Rep. Cedric Richmond by a 51%-26% margin. That the GOP first term incumbent manages to achieve such a statistical lead in a US House seat which Barack Obama won with over 75% of the vote, and where no Republican had previously held office in over a century, alone came as an extraordinary boost for the first Vietnamese American Congressman’s re-election bid. Then, Cao learned that his sole Republican primary opponent dropped out of the race, while his aforementioned likely principal opponent drew strong and unexpected competition both in the Democratic primary and the General election.

The poll, conducted from May 27-June 2 by Kennedy's firm, Market Research Insight, surveyed 400 voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%. In it, Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among White voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among Black voters. With 61% of the voter registration rolls in the Second District comprised of African-Americans, that the Vietnamese Republican could essentially tie a Black Democratic State Representative seems remarkable enough, but Kennedy goes on to point out that the Congressman’s advantage grows because, in this mid-term election, the LA pollster believes that turnout among black voters will top out at 57%.