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Story Archives: NEW REAPPORTIONMENT MAP DRAWN TO KEEP MELANCON DISTRICT INTACT
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NEW REAPPORTIONMENT MAP DRAWN TO KEEP MELANCON DISTRICT INTACT
(INTERESTING CONCEPT) SUBMITTED BY A PARTISAN DEMOCRATIC SUBSCRIBER:
First off, it is with great sadness that I am unable to identify myself at this point. I am a college professor who is not tenured. Furthermore, disclosing myself would most likely result in further retribution toward the great University that I am fortunate to work for.
However, I have extensive knowledge in redistricting and demographic modeling. I am growing concerned that the general consensus as it relates to the 2010 redistricting process seems to center around the basic thought process that in order to maintain Louisiana's only minority district, Democrats will be forced to dissolve Charlie Melancon's district.
THIS IS NOT TRUE... AND MORE THAN LIKELY PART OF THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE'S OVERALL REDISTRICTING STRATEGY.
Both districts can be drawn. The enclosed map includes a plan that preserves both seats held by Democrats and leaves the rest of the state for the Republicans to carve-up. Furthermore, by preserving the two seats held by Democrats, you will inevitably force Republican incumbents to be drawn into the same district. This will result in a very negative Republican Primary campaign where both candidates will have to run to the right of Bill O'Reilly. A polarizing Republican Primary will pave the way for a moderate Democrat to win in the General Election.
The enclosed plan is both demographically feasible and constitutionally sound. This plan creates a costal district where Melancon and future Democrats can run and win. Congressional District 3 remains largely intact, with 73% of the proposed district composed of the existing district. The proposed third district adds all of Vermillion and Cameron Parish and parts of the West Bank in Jefferson. It also creates a New Orleans based minority district which will be composed of parts of Orleans and Jefferson Parish (64%), parts of St Charles, Ascension, Iberville and all of St John and St James (14%) and parts of East Baton Rouge Parish (22%).
Democrats cannot afford to concede districts and from everything I have heard ...that is exactly what we are doing. To dissolve Melancon's district would leave Louisiana with just one Democrat in a Democrat controlled Congress (assuming we take back Congressional District 2 in 2010). We cannot make gains if we are not prepared to hold our own.
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